This was posted on the forum, and I’m officially nominating it for one of the best posts of the year already. I have not personally verified all of the information, but it’s obvious that people are paying attention!
1. We know from Maliki’s letter to the UN dated 13 Dec 2009 that it is his intention to bring Iraq into the “international financial community” during 2010.
2. We know that his letter stated originally 2009 or 2010 and it is dated 13 Dec 2009. Therefore this would seem to indicate a degree of imminence in itself since he included 2009 with only 17 days left in that year!
3. From this letter then we know now a time frame and a FACT that the RV will occur by his use of the phrase to “bring Iraq into the international financial community.”
4. This was echoed by the UN in July when we found a document in which was buried on about the 50th page the statement that the UN intended to revalue the currency of Iraq as well.
5. The programmed rate of 1170 IQD to the dollar is set to expire on January 12, today. This needs to be verified because I did not provide the link proving this. However,
6. The Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) is scheduled to come into affect for Iraq on the 12th, the same day that the programmed rate expires.
7. The purpose of the ERM is to stabilize a given currency among several currencies that participate in the ERM so that large fluctuations are avoided. The goal of the ERM, as was the case in Europe, is to bring the currency group into “parity” and then eventually create a single currency for all of the countries in the group.
8. The fact that Iraq is participating in an ERM indicates that there is a plan, as yet not announced publicly, for a group of countries to form a unified currency in the ME.
9. The GCC has already indicated its desire to form a single currency and has in fact already invited and accepted Iraq into the GCC as a “fully fledged member”. This occurred in July.
10. For Iraq to become a fully fledged member, however, it has to have an internationally recognized currency. It’s entry therefore is another indication that the plan is in the works for an RV of the dinar.
11. The average current level of currencies in the GCC is about $3.45. It is therefore reasonable to suspect that the IQD will be RVd either at that rate or at a lower rate and then be allowed to rise to that rate prior to the creation of the single ME currency.
12. The ERM allows for a fixed rate platform, a managed float platform, and a free float platform.
13. We have heard rumors that the RV would include a short time frame for exchanging dinars. Periods from 30 days to 45 days seem to predominate. None has projected less than 30 days that I am aware of.
14. Presumably and logically the cash-in “window” would be used to draw in all notes of 1,000 dinar or larger. My assumption is that these would eventually be destroyed and then the IQD would have notes similar to the US dollar (1, 5, 20, 50, and 100) plus coinage as we do. All of this has already been planned for and I have read that the bills have been produced.
15. The final key to our analysis is to attempt to put a narrower time frame on the RV. This begins with March 17 as the farthest out possible date. The reasoning is as follows:
16. The IMF has announced that it is lending 7 trillion dinar to Iraq to support its budget. First payment on that loan is due on March 17. This number seems enormous on the surface and would lead us to believe that
17. The loan cannot be repaid with the current valuation of the dinar. However at $1 or $3 for the value of the dinar (instead of $.0008) the loan becomes somewhere between $2.5 billion and $7 billion.
18. Given the fact that the Iraqi budget, based on $60 per barrel oil, is going to be less than $100 billion, then the loan represents somewhere between 2.5% and 7% of the budget, which is reasonable. However,
19. It is ONLY reasonable if the IQD is revalued. And in order to pay its first payment the RV would have to occur BEFORE the first payment is due. This is all consistent with Maliki’s statement in his letter to the UN.
20. I have read that the IMF has rules that insist that Iraq be prepared to make its payments from 30 to 45 days PRIOR to the payment date, and that it much show proof to the IMF. This needs to be verified by our group but is reasonable. In any case, however, the IMF clearly would NOT have announced the loan unless it KNEW that Iraq would be able to pay it back. This is a secondary confirmation that an RV is close.
21. The election takes place on March 7. Clearly Maliki intends to be re-elected. Clearly also it is in his best interest to get the RV done prior to the election so that he can benefit from that event.
22. Election laws prohibit certain major expenses and changes in expense structures 30 days prior to the election (this is to prevent fraud and “buying” of an election). I have read this and should be able to provide a link, or someone else should post it for us so we have it in writing. This means that Maliki has until February 7 to get the RV done; otherwise he will have violated Iraqi law and placed a cloud on his re-election chances.
23. Finally, the new budget obviously has to be in affect shortly, and clearly very soon since the first payment from the IMF is due on March 17. We learned yesterday that the budget is conditionally approved with only 2 small elements to be worked out. I posted some more on this this morning, as did Hangtime.
24. We can be confident that the budget will be finalized this week, IMO.
25. We can therefore now state with a good degree of confidence that the RV must occur sometime between now and February 7. The sooner it is done the better for Maliki and his election prospects, in my opinion, since he has more time for the impact of the RV to be felt by the people.
26. It is likely that the coup attempt was made yesterday with the foreknowledge that Maliki has this “rabbit in the hat” and that once the RV is announced there will be no stopping his re-election.
Thanks for you wonderful accolades. It’s nice to know that we all respect each other and appreciate each other’s efforts. Needless to say, this analysis was not done in a vacuum. It is based on posts provided by others in our group over the last several months and really just clarifies what is already in our posts.
I did this once before and was wrong, quite honestly. However the last time I did this I didn’t have anywhere near as much solid evidence as we have now. The tide is definitely in our favor and I personally can see no way that the RV wouldn’t happen in 2010, as Maliki himself has promised and the UN has indicated needs to happen. Furthermore, I see no reason why speed should not be of the essence in getting this done from the viewpoint of the Maliki government. Therefore, and in conclusion, I look for an RV from $1 to $3.50 before February 7 and most like within the next 10 days.